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What? From Pre-game to three pages in a single day? Gosh.

Ah well, nice that the game started.

vote drealmer7

It's always a good way to start! ;-)
Now to read all the stuff you have written.

Flavour:
By the way, I'm Baron Samedi. Who are you all?
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adaliabooks: Thanks for doing that.

Of course not, but if everyone gets picked for one combo then we are all just as likely be scum.
If three players get picked in four or five different combos they become much less likely to be scum (I don't think it's actually possible to be completely cleared from the picks alone, but I haven't looked too closely at that).
If everyone else gets picked twice and one person doesn't get picked at all they are (even just a little) more likely to be scum.

If we get anything better to work with then that's hardly worth considering, but this being day 1 we may not get much to work with.

So far you and Hunter are the least likely to be scum, but far from cleared in any way.
Only way for a henchman to be cleared through the grid alone is for them to be picked by every other henchman and paired with every single one, i.e. only if all cells in their row and column are filled with (different colour) X's. Given the repeats we had so far and the number of players that haven't yet revealed their picks, no-one's going to get to that status.

Wile the number of picks per henchman is an indication of how likely it is for them to be scum, don't forget that scum were assigned at random, so another factor is "who was the first to roll scum" - since none of us got clearance through the picks, we were all fair game, yes? Take Hunter65536 for example - if he was the first to roll scum, then the grid actually points to a smaller pool of players for us to find his scum-mate. This can be pretty useful as soon as we lynch our first scum. And in order to get there, we (still) have to play the mafia game, and scumhunt; with this being D1, we just have to try harder.

*looks around, spots Lifthrasil, apparently doing his RVS thing*


Would be funny if you rolled scum, and played your best scum game ever at a time no-one seems to "fear" your scum game enough.



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trentonlf: I'm not understanding your graph because I don't see anyway for my picks to have been chosen, can you please explain it?
Sorry about that, I think I screwed up the colour coding in the grid I attached. Here's an updated one, after gogtrial34987 revealed their picks. I've triple checked, so hopefully it's accurate this time. Also switched some colours around for better visibility,

I have assigned each henchman a colour, and their picks are depicted in their colour. Since each pick translates to a scum-pair that can't be, I've changed the O's to X's. You are dark green, so the dark green X's are your picks.

If anyone spots a flaw, in the grid, or my thoughts, let me know.

Off to prepare dinner, will check back later.
Attachments:
Welp this hasn't cleared as much as I hoped it would and though I did expect this might be the case. Scum would not want to clear any more pairs since they will be cornered then, they can't clear themselves like others noted before but they won't be clearing others as well this way. I think scumhunting must start from those who have named repeated pairs, clear them on a case by case basis and that should get us something. Will do so after I wake up but I feel this is the right direction to go.
looks like we're sharing picks and doing the chart, okies I guess
I would have at least preferred to wait until we had someone at L-1 if not D2 or later, but, whatevers

RWarehall + trentonlf
Lifthrasil + Hunter007 (remember hunter used to be Hunter7?!)

I'm Mr. Wint !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and I just watched Diamonds Are Forever last night because it was next on the to-watch for Bond movies for me (had been re-watching them over the past couple years, in order), it's also my favorite (the best!) Bond movie. nice little bit of synchronicity

Odd Job is my favorite, but, Mr. Wint is SO excellent I must say, and the fact that he's a singular performance vs. Odd Job's multi. Yepyep...quite thrilled to be him!

content later probably maybe I haven't caught up and don't have energy/focus until after I probably nap later
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HypersomniacLive: Funny, it looks like you targeted all the ones in timezones different than your own. Did it have anything to do with your picks? Why these pairs?
Timezones, not really. Lift, you, and Hunter (especially from his play last game) are players I believe I might have a hard time reading. Added GoGTrial to not just be the "Power 4" with Trent. Although I guess regional differences may play a role on my ability to read people. Never considered that idea. Could also explain how inscrutable JMich is to read.
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RWarehall: One could think you're lining him up for a D1 lynch.
I wouldn't say lining up. Drealmer has a tendency to get suspicion early making him unlikely to be around for endgame when the picks are more likely to have more meaning.
Pick 1: gogtrial and hunter. I picked from all the people I was not familiar with (basically not-Drealmerz) and decided on this because both have a number sequence in their name.
Pick 2: adalia and trent. Adalia was a bit thought out, since I remembered he made a script for the mafia players, meaning he was likely very experienced. Trent was just a random extra to go with.
As for flavor, I'm Tee Hee Johnson.
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Lifthrasil: What? From Pre-game to three pages in a single day? Gosh.

Ah well, nice that the game started.

vote drealmer7

It's always a good way to start! ;-)
Now to read all the stuff you have written.

Flavour:
By the way, I'm Baron Samedi. Who are you all?
Hey Lift you're the last one that has to state their picks. Don't leave us hanging.
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adaliabooks: Thanks for doing that.

Of course not, but if everyone gets picked for one combo then we are all just as likely be scum.
If three players get picked in four or five different combos they become much less likely to be scum (I don't think it's actually possible to be completely cleared from the picks alone, but I haven't looked too closely at that).
If everyone else gets picked twice and one person doesn't get picked at all they are (even just a little) more likely to be scum.

If we get anything better to work with then that's hardly worth considering, but this being day 1 we may not get much to work with.

So far you and Hunter are the least likely to be scum, but far from cleared in any way.
avatar
HypersomniacLive: Only way for a henchman to be cleared through the grid alone is for them to be picked by every other henchman and paired with every single one, i.e. only if all cells in their row and column are filled with (different colour) X's. Given the repeats we had so far and the number of players that haven't yet revealed their picks, no-one's going to get to that status.

Wile the number of picks per henchman is an indication of how likely it is for them to be scum, don't forget that scum were assigned at random, so another factor is "who was the first to roll scum" - since none of us got clearance through the picks, we were all fair game, yes? Take Hunter65536 for example - if he was the first to roll scum, then the grid actually points to a smaller pool of players for us to find his scum-mate. This can be pretty useful as soon as we lynch our first scum. And in order to get there, we (still) have to play the mafia game, and scumhunt; with this being D1, we just have to try harder.

*looks around, spots Lifthrasil, apparently doing his RVS thing*

Would be funny if you rolled scum, and played your best scum game ever at a time no-one seems to "fear" your scum game enough.

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trentonlf: I'm not understanding your graph because I don't see anyway for my picks to have been chosen, can you please explain it?
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HypersomniacLive: Sorry about that, I think I screwed up the colour coding in the grid I attached. Here's an updated one, after gogtrial34987 revealed their picks. I've triple checked, so hopefully it's accurate this time. Also switched some colours around for better visibility,

I have assigned each henchman a colour, and their picks are depicted in their colour. Since each pick translates to a scum-pair that can't be, I've changed the O's to X's. You are dark green, so the dark green X's are your picks.

If anyone spots a flaw, in the grid, or my thoughts, let me know.

Off to prepare dinner, will check back later.
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HypersomniacLive: Only way for a henchman to be cleared through the grid alone is for them to be picked by every other henchman and paired with every single one, i.e. only if all cells in their row and column are filled with (different colour) X's. Given the repeats we had so far and the number of players that haven't yet revealed their picks, no-one's going to get to that status.

Wile the number of picks per henchman is an indication of how likely it is for them to be scum, don't forget that scum were assigned at random, so another factor is "who was the first to roll scum" - since none of us got clearance through the picks, we were all fair game, yes? Take Hunter65536 for example - if he was the first to roll scum, then the grid actually points to a smaller pool of players for us to find his scum-mate. This can be pretty useful as soon as we lynch our first scum. And in order to get there, we (still) have to play the mafia game, and scumhunt; with this being D1, we just have to try harder.

*looks around, spots Lifthrasil, apparently doing his RVS thing*

Would be funny if you rolled scum, and played your best scum game ever at a time no-one seems to "fear" your scum game enough.

Sorry about that, I think I screwed up the colour coding in the grid I attached. Here's an updated one, after gogtrial34987 revealed their picks. I've triple checked, so hopefully it's accurate this time. Also switched some colours around for better visibility,

I have assigned each henchman a colour, and their picks are depicted in their colour. Since each pick translates to a scum-pair that can't be, I've changed the O's to X's. You are dark green, so the dark green X's are your picks.

If anyone spots a flaw, in the grid, or my thoughts, let me know.

Off to prepare dinner, will check back later.
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trentonlf:
What???
Sorry about that, posting from my phone and told not to post before I had written anything!

The chart is much better, I see how it works now. Thanks for making it!
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GammaEmerald: Scum hunt then later we can share picks.
You were actually in the game we're re-running here (which also started off with sharing picks most swiftly), so this suggestion would've carried a lot of weight for me... if you'd elaborated on why you came to the conclusion that this was the way to go. It's too late now, but for retrospective understanding, could you still explain why this would give town the greater advantage?

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GammaEmerald: I think the "one name from each" idea is good for now.
That was a pretty swift change of view. What part of Adalia's argument did you find most convincing to go along with this, or were there other influences?

Drealmer, trent: Could you both also give the thinking behind the specific pairs you submitted?

Hunter, RW, Lift, HSL: As you haven't spoken up about this yet: How much did you look at the mafiascum thread?

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drealmer7: and I just watched Diamonds Are Forever last night because it was next on the to-watch for Bond movies for me (had been re-watching them over the past couple years, in order), it's also my favorite (the best!) Bond movie. nice little bit of synchronicity
Heh, I've been doing the same. Bought a boxset a while after Quantum of Solace came out; watched Moonraker last month. Sadly that means that I have virtually no memory of my character, May Day, and not going to get around to watching the movie she's from in short order, either.

Btw, given your history with always reading trent the opposite of his true alignment, and him starting off the game interacting (and agreeing!) with you quite a bit, do you have an early read for him?
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gogtrial34987: Hunter, RW, Lift, HSL: As you haven't spoken up about this yet: How much did you look at the mafiascum thread?
I didn't at all. Just looked at the rules, thought through the implications, saw suggestions in posts in this game and came to the conclusion that putting them all out early both gives town the maximum information while making it harder for scum to make timely shenanigans later.

Quite frankly, for now, I find that information mostly meaningless. The early days, we still need to scum hunt. I just feel the pairings might become helpful toward endgame. This shouldn't become a "logic problem". We should not be trying to win by probabilities.
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RWarehall: Lift + Hunter
That's funny. I selected you and Hunter for my first pick. Seems that Hunter made quite an impression as scum...

Second pick was gogtrial and Gamma: for being basically unknown to me and therefore probably unreadable.
Woo, someone picked me!

Yeah, I agree the matrix and picks are of limited use, but they are more useful out in the open. Basically it's handy to look at a pair and know they can't possibly be scum, as it limits the conspiracy theories and doubts.

So far drealmer and gamma are the most suspicious for not wanting to share picks, but we know they can't be team mates so it's one of them at best.

I'll have to look properly at the order of declared picks to see who claimed a duplicate as I think there is reason to suspect them (though only a little)
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adaliabooks: I'll have to look properly at the order of declared picks to see who claimed a duplicate as I think there is reason to suspect them (though only a little)
I've been keeping track of that.
1. trent
2. hunter
3. HSL (2 dupes; first to give explanations)
4. RW (1 dupe)
5. adalia
6. trial (1 dupe)
7. drealmer (1 dupe)
8. gamma
9. lift (1 dupe)