Brasas replaces gogtrial.

The deadline has been extended 24 hours.

New deadline : Thursday, March 30 at 4:00 PM EST, 8:00 PM GMT

So here's the thing... if I definitely need to be the lynch today... what do you do tomorrow when I flip town?
What conclusions do you draw from that?

And if, like trent, you seem to believe that Lift is my buddy... why the hell is he bussing me? (And has been for some time).

I mean, if I'm the only choice for lynch then there should be something to gain from my lynch whatever the flip is.

I'm home now, going to eat supper and take some more meds. Will be later this evening before I finish my analysis.

I"m not sure if your post #577 means that you have more things to add regarding my first question, here are a few comments, and further questions after a first read of what you posted so far:

- Point #3: Sorry, I"d not call the arguments you made regarding the subject of WIFOM from revealing the picks [emphasis added] "I said I agree somewhat with what drealmer said about picks causing to much WIFOM". In your post #12 your exact wording is "I agree with drealmer for the most part", and in your reply-post #24 to me you clarified what exactly it is you agree with drealmer7 with.

- Point #4 and adaliabooks post #210: Rereading it, I see he said he was confused by something that had happened, which was that you picked drealmer7 as your top scum, which in turn made him doubt his theory about the two of you being a scum pair. I don't really see that he claimed to be confused about drealmer7. Do you want to rephrase your point, so it's clear to me what you see?

- Point #9 and adaliabooks post #452: IIRC, you never really said you town-read RWarehall until I asked you about him directly. As for adaliabooks post #452, I honestly fail to see how that post in particular says "now that's an issue for adalia". Elaborate, please?

- Point #15 and adaliabooks post #472: He had said in a previous post that Lifthrasil was trying to lynch drealmer7 for real. I asked him to point out all of Lifthrasil's posts that demonstrated it. He did so in his post #472. Could you explain why you read this post as "clearing Lifthrasil"? Is it the opening paragraph, something else?

- Point #17 and adaliabooks post #509: I think you misread the bit about who could or couldn't be your scum-buddy. If you reread the last paragraph of adaliabooks' post, you'll realise he's referring to RWarehall, and not drealmer7. Are you sure you're reading it right?

And here are three more questions for you:

1. Your first four points refer to D1. Yet, here's what you said at the end of D1: Which pretty much says the exact opposite from what you say here. Were you suspecting him back in D1, and chose to conceal it (something you hold against adaliabooks) by lying about how you read him? Did you believe it at the time? If so, can you honestly say that the way you are reading those posts of his now is not confirmation-bias?

2. If you had a top suspect that nobody was willing to vote, and Day-end was approaching, would you choose to vote for someone among a group of people with votes on them already, if you thought said someone to also be scummy, or would you stick with your top suspect, even if it could lead to No-Lynch?

3. I know you are sick (hope you get well soon), but could you go back and re-read him as town? I know you're building a case against him, and that it' may not be that easy, especially since you're not feeling all that well, but could you try as objectively as possible? Then tell me if you still find all the posts you mentioned as scummy? If not, which ones would you set aside, and why?


I see nobody is interested in answering my other question (post #568), but at least we got a replacement.

Point 3: Trying to solve this game based on picks is WIFOM, if you don't think it is then our opinions of what WIFOM is are different

Point 4: He claimed he was confused about whether drealmer was scum, is that not clear in what I said? He tried to say I was his top suspect all along and was confused whether if drealmer was really scum at all since I had drealmer as my top scum suspect, but by the end of the day when it's obvious I would not be the lynch I don't even make it onto his scum list. I do at the start of Day 2 magically though.

Point 9: Post 264 in my response to gogtrial on Day 1 I said I thought RW's play so far was town RW, I never changed my opinion on that other than to say his laser focus on drealmer at the start of Day 2 was not what I considered town play in response to your question. adalia flops around like a fish out of water depending on what I say, I suspect drealmer so that means drealmer can't be scum. I think RW is town and now it might be an issue for adalia (he had to think on it as he said in that post and realized getting RW lynched would make him look bad so it was ok at that point that I saw RW as town)

Point 15: His response "he has gone far and above any required effort of distancing, and even been quite personal in parts (which he himself admitted) which is again not what I would count as scum on scum conversation." makes it clear that he does not think Lift is scum and drealmer is, he is clearing Lift

Point 17: I did not see it that way when I read it the first time, but I do see in that post he is trying to say there's no way me and RW could be a pair but that me and drealmer are.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. At the end of Day 1 I did think adalia had been acting in town manner, it was not till he started again pushing in Day 2 for me as scum with drealmer or RW that I went back over his posts and realized what he has been doing.

2. What does this have to do with anything about adalia? What day are you talking about? Day 1, I would not vote someone just to vote them. I would only vote someone if I found them to be scummy. If I thought someone was scum I would leave my vote where it is. After Day 1 it would depend on the setup and whether a no lynch was really going to happen.

3. So I should go back and read adalia as town, yet he does not need to go back and read me as town? Why?

Lifthrasil:

Post 85 tries to lay the foundation for a gamma/HSL scum pair. gets called on it by Hunter in post 87, post 88 retracts that gamma/HSL are a pair but says one of them probably is, and in Post 98 when HSL calls him on it too Lift puts drealmer as scummier than HSL (and then says only scum would try to get drealmer lynched early since he's an easy lynch) and again tries to say either HSL or gogtrial could be scum for setting up drealmer.

Post 114 gets upset with drealmer for saying scum just want to do him in (when he just said the same thing in post 98), then proceeds to say gamma was scummy, gogtiral was scummy, and HSL was scummy (but not really) as he votes drealmer.

Post 126, when giving his reads on people says if drealmer is lynched and flips town then Hyper jumps to the top of his scum list and adalia is scummy as well (Lift was voting drealmer at this point). This looks like to me he is trying to cast shade on Hyper because he knows drealmer will flip town and wants to make Hyper a mislynch, but to make sure he is keeping distance from adalia says he will also appear scummy (but not the top of his list when adalia was the one pushing for drealmers lynch)

Post 146 Lift is called on his suspicions of Hyper by Hyper and Lift assures him he does not find Hyper scummy but that if dreamer flips town then Hyper really is scummy and proceeds to unvote drealmer so he can think on it more. Trying to appease Hyper but leave it open that if drealmer is lynched and flips town that Hyper is probably scum.


Again it's late and I'm tired so will finish this tomorrow evening, I'm sorry I did not get as far as I wanted this evening.

Hi folks,

I read a bit past D2 start, unless work is super crap should be caught up in like 12 hours - my evening.

I did check (more or less) where we stand, with deadline in like 2 days, Adalia at L-1 and "me" as the only pedestrian around (read: not on a wagon).

Overall thoughts - and yes (duh), I'm town.
Scum day chat is huge and makes me beware the strong players - we should expect very effective distancing because it can and will be coordinated. I also expect lots of subtle FUD.
Many of the top scum picks at this stage like drealmer and adalia I see rather as lost town.
My pet theory for scum pair based on D1 is hyper - RW. How's that for going against the current? I actually need to see the pairings if this is even possible, but call it a gut feeling for now.
Trent and Lift I think are somewhere in the middle, I could see them as scum, but since anyway as town they tend to be laid back scum hunt and stick to a pick and don't budge scumhunt respectively...

I want to look at the pairings, not in that horrible matrix but in an actual list of pairs - excluding the ones 100% because of flips, marking the ones that might or not be true. I also want to look a bit at how the wagons progressed. Has anyone actually done wagon analysis yet?

Yeah I think that's it, need to get going.

Possible. But not as likely, I think. You have been at L-1 long enough, already when gogtrial was still around. And there were plenty of reasons offered to vote you, that scum-gogtrial could have latched on to. If you were a towny, there would be no reason for a 'free' scum to bus instead of hammering you.
But maybe you just want to secure yourself for the case that trent flips town, because you know he will?

And with drealmer having lurked again long enough for a second prod, I am liking the idea that it is drealmer + adalia more and more.

Well, off to another attempt at reading through all the walls of text that HSL wrote. Not easy on a spotty net. I thought I would never say something like that, but HSL, you write too much! ;-) (at least for someone who is travelling)

Gah. I hate this net. OK, one of HSL's questions to me was: what do we do tomorrow, if we mislynch.
Depends on who the mislynch is. I already answered that question concerning trent and adalia. If you mislynch me, I still think adalia has to go next. Others aren't on the table any more, I think.

If adalia flips scum, however, we have to shots to get it right. Only trent will be excluded then, but my feeling says that either RW or drealmer are adalia's scumbuddy. If trent flips scum, you'll probably mislynch me next, as things look at the moment and after that you'll have a 50% chance to get it right since either drealmer or brasas have to be his scumbuddy. My money is on drealmer.

@trent: you are forgetting one thing in your attempt to make adalia and me scumbuddies. Day-chat. He was townreading me until I put him at L-1 and then he suddenly changed his reading. But scum has a day-chat. So if I were his buddy and decided to bus him, that would have been coordinated and no reason for him to change his reading so suddenly. Sure, all this is WIFOM and we could have playacted it all. But I have had adalia as one of my scum picks for very long, beyond any bussing necessity. Also, perhaps more importantly, when I put him at L-1 I could just as well have put you at L-1 with enough reasons floating around which I could have pretended to believe. Or in other words, if adalia and I were a scum-pair, you'd be dead by now.

So, I hope this message goes through this time.

But your argument works in reverse too. You or drealmer seem to be the top options for my supposed buddy now (whatever happened to me being scum with RWarehall?), and you both have had enough reasons to vote trent, so why would either of you be bussing me?

If you're not scum, then surely you can see the way trent is twisting things round to make you my buddy? Why is that not more note worthy to you?

Off to work on a rebuttal to trent now, I may be some time.

How is that clearing myself as being scum? gogtrial asked why my scum game wasn't great and I told him.
Are you saying that you consider me to be playing quite well which is contrary to my claim of being shit as scum?
If so, maybe it's because I'm not scum.

So I've been setting you up all game to be scum? This was before I'd shared any opinion on your scuminess.
All I said was that you should always look at the possible pairs, there is no point in working on the basis that trent and RWarehall or drelmer and Hyper are the scum team because it's impossible. If such a pair both seem scummy to you than it's only possible for one of them to be scum and everyone needs to be aware of that when making reads.
Really don't see how any of that can be scummy.

I have suspected you all game. Hyper apparently has too, but you don't call him out for that. Really don't see how the rest of that is relevant, what has me being shit under pressure got to do with you being scum?

Hyper has already covered this really. I wasn't going to pursue you to the ends of the earth when no one else was interested. You had done a good job of responding to my accusations in what I considered a townie fashion and Hunter had made enough of a fuss to be a good lynch choice so I let you go for the time being.

What would you expect? We were all on the wagon of a townie. The three of us were quite instrumental in pushing that wagon, of course I'm going to look less favourably at you and RW.
I know I'm town and that I got it wrong about Hunter, but from where I'm standing it's less obvious that is the case for anyone else on the wagon.

Yeah, drealmer had done some things that looked suspicious. I hadn't dropped the idea that him and you were a very likely scum team so of course he's high on my list to lynch.
I looked at the matrix options and realised it was very unlikely RW was scum as none of the pairs made sense to me, so yes I did clear him. Same as you did (though for different reasons).
But you don't think RWarehall is scum or my buddy, so what is scummy about me clearing him?

No, I had said I doubted Hunter's scuminess and Lift called me on it and said why didn't I say anything at the time, so I clarified that what gave me pause was the hammer, by which time it was too late. Please do explain what your issue with that is. Ask Lift in scum chat, he's clearly much better at this than you are.
At the time RW looked like a likely lynch and with my 'all kills are good kills' policy I was happy enough to join that lynch, but thought more about it later and decided it was a really bad lynch that would put us in bad position tomorrow.

See above, still hadn't realised what a bad position lynching RW would leave us in tomorrow.

No, it wasn't an issue. Have you been reading the thread at all? I said my top three picks were voting RWarehall so I wouldn't. It was then pointed out that you were not voting him and I clarified that it was a mistake because I had been in a rush when I posted and I would need to think about whether that changed my opinion on RW's lynch (spoiler; it didn't)

You'll actually find I didn't want anything to do with RW's lynch in this post and was clarifying my position in that post to Lift. So you can't have reread too carefully. Also, how would I look bad if RWarehall flipped town? Can you explain that? I was top spot for his buddy so surely him flipping town is good for me?

I did and didn't intend to follow up. My intention was to stop the lynch, I did. If I have to be lynched instead so be it, it's not really looking like I'm doing a great job of stopping being the next lynch am I?
Absolute fail at reading comprehension there. That was sarcasm, as Lift has been trying to lynch me all game, never mind all day. But you still put him as my likely buddy despite the face that he has barely let up in his suspicions of me at all.
Also, please point out what part of that post is me clearing Lift as scum? I have said I thought he was town in many other posts, but see nothing in that one that does it.

And your point is? That I'm so dense and useless at this game that I would literally spend every other post saying how my buddy is sooooo town?
You are just listing my posts with no actual thoughts of your own about what they mean or how they make me scum

Honestly. Why did scum me vote myself? You believe RWarehall is town, so why did scum me vote myself to try and stop his lynch rather than just jumping on and pushing him to lynch? Please explain that one to me.

More listing of random posts with no reasoning.

So I list a theory, with lots of evidence and detail. What about that makes me scum? You've just done the same, though in very half arsed way. Could I not just be misguided town? Or because you are the target I must be scum?
Except you didn't think that day 1..

No. I had already voted you. You were already my top suspect. Try again.
I haven't ruled out drealmer as your buddy, but I took on board what Hyper said and considered it. Shock horror, I changed my opinion based on what another player said. You all should try it some time.
What? Hyper already voted you. Hyper already supported the idea you were scum. What exactly was I doing here to enlist his help?

So in your narrative, where me and Lift are buddies, why has he voted me? And why have I said he must be your logical partner?
Lift had already supposedly been swayed by my arguments to vote drealmer, Hyper is now on your wagon too. Why wouldn't Lift vote either of those instead of bussing me? Please explain this.

I'm not arguing this; I've already commented on it, and you know it. I'm pointing out that "somewhat" is not how your agreement with drealmer7 on the matter looked and looks to me. It looks a bit like you're trying to downplay it now because of the attention it drew.


I still don't really see in that post that he's saying that your action made him doubt drealmer7's scumminess, only his take on the two of you as a scum-pair. Perhaps it is how you read it, I just don't see it. So. let me rephrase my question - what in his wording and phrasing reads like that to you?


[emphasis added]

Oh, trentonlf, go and reread my question, it contains the "if you thought said someone to also be scummy" condition. Why make such a fuss when answering? And since you distinguished between Days, I'll rephrase my question a bit - if you had a D1 top pick that wasn't going to be lynched, and there were alternatives on the table you found scummy (let's say, just not as scummy), would you vote one of them or stick with your top pick, even if your vote could make the difference between Lynch and No-Lynch?

I'm waiting to see his rebuttal first. You know that I don't give anyone a pass, so don't go there. I asked you to do a reread on him for a very specific reason; I'm not asking you to make a 180 turn, but I see quite a bit of confirmation bias in some of the points you made.



OK, you do realise, however, that the assumption that you are town is a problem for me, yes? You say you are town, but for me it's still an assumption you are asking me to make. And as the scum points about adaliabooks remain for you, I got mine about you, so there's that.


Oh Lifthrasil, really? From everything I've posted Today, you went back to a question I asked you back in D1? A question you ignored back then when replying to my post? Because you weren't in the spotlight back then, but are on the table now?


I assume this means that it was simply a most unfortunate, if not diabolic, coincidence that you put adaliabooks at L-1 in your very first post of the day, right after I had put trentonlf at L-2, eh?

I must say that the more you talk, the more I feel inclined to switch my vote to you. But I will wait to see what others, and especially Brasas, have to say first.



Are you saying that you doubt the picks are true?



I'll check beck in later (my) tonight.

I'm on my phone so will answer as best as I can

1. You are laying the foundation to clear yourself as scum "I can't be scum, I'm shit under pressure" and as I've pointed out later your scum game has improved, you're not melting down line you use to do so being shit under pressure is a smokescreen you're trying to hide behind.

2. You are saying I'm scummy, and the post you made means your are more townie because of that. So yes you have been trying to set me up as scum since the start of the game, I would guess because I'm the only person who you were paired with.

3. Because I think Hyper is a misguided townie and you are scum. I already explained your weak attempt to clear yourself as scum using the "shit under pressure" excuse, and I never said you saying that had anything to do with me being scum or did you even read what I posted?

4. I see, since no one else thought I was scimmy it cleared me but once someone else thought I might be scum then I'm not clear anymore. Good to know you will only suspect someone that is suspected by other people first.

5. I think it's more you knew Hunter would flip town so stopped pushing for me to get Hunter lynched and then tried to use his lynch as an excuse to find me and RW scummy.

6. You all of a sudden stopped suspecting RW because RW was pushing for drealmer and you thought drealmer would be an easier lynch. I think if RW had not been pushing for drealmer you would still have had RW as one of your suspects at that time.

I am at work and will finish responding later today if I can to adalia and Hyper or this evening when I get home.

I think you need to keep reading. It shouldn't be hard to figure out why the game would be over by now if that were really the case. I wish that were the case though.