FAButzke: Remember our little discussion on this subject a while back?
If you want to blame something for the decline in pre-orders and day 1 purchases (which IS NOT nearly as low as you thought) blame this kind of release. People pre-ordering and getting this level of quality makes them do exactly what you described above: Wait for a sale. (That's what I will do as well as far as this game is concerned. I will pre-order Heart of Swarm, though ;) )
You can also blame this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mf5Uj4XIT1Y orcishgamer: I didn't pre-order this though I was fairly optimistic about its release. I agree getting burnt like this will put people off pre-ordering at least for awhile. I pre-order quite a bit and can keep the ratio down to one stinker out of 5, in general. In fact my stinker of 2012 is something most people liked: Dishonored.
Hmm, now that I've actually had the 20 minutes to listen to that video he does bring up some good points, and many I hadn't considered because my pre-orders don't typically work like that.
He does criticize Gamestop console pre-orders, but most of his criticism focuses on how Steam works, and you know what? He's got a point.
My pre-orders work thus:
Gamestop: Want it, throw 5 bucks down when I am otherwise there for some other reason (either a pick up, grabbing a Skylander for my daughter - those are scams btw, just a fun scam), day of release the review embargos are broken and anything tragically bad shows up on my news feed. Given his point that I might be psychologically influenced by having put down 5 bucks into being more likely to follow through I'll probably switch to explicitly checking several reviews before I pick up.
Amazon.com: Pre-order, no money is charged until it ships, shows up on my front porch, free shipping on day of release. This is even better because if I don't rip open the shrink wrap I have a couple of days (in theory longer, but I don't typically pre-order games I don't intend to play right away) to find out if it's tragic, I can set up a refund with a couple mouse clicks, print out the generated shipping label and walk a block to the UPS store or the USPS and ship it back. Typically costs a dollar or a dollar and a half, given that the drive to Gamestop and back easily consumes that much gas I probably, all in all, come out ahead on this.
So, with regards to the video, individually this isn't a bad thing for me, but it may contribute to shit development practices at times. I don't share his hate for day 1 DLC because it's not all created equal. Some is really a douche bag move and really should have been in the main game, most, however, is simply shit they did during certification, isn't necessary to get a complete experience out the game, and, finally, is shit we seem to buy way more often if it's available on release.
Steam is... worse than the above, as he said, by the time the reviews are out you're basically fucked. I think I've only pre-ordered one game from Steam (as it's my 2nd class gaming experience) and it was something that had a demo which I actually liked (XCom if you were wondering). Because of the demo I was relatively certain I wanted the game, it could have been a lie, of course, but less likely than other marketing efforts.
Given that video, I would agree, Steam pre-orders are probably toxic to consumers and possibly very bad for the industry. I'll have to consider if the industry and consumer harm of console pre-orders exceeds the personal benefits and whatever industry benefits there may be.