I am here. I am okay.
I also expect that I am probably going to disappoint a few people when I flip, but that is okay we will deal with it when it comes. I will be home in 30 minutes; will start posting then.

I don't expect that whoever killed JMich was aligned with the mafia because a JMich kill makes absolutely no sense for scum, especially after he self-voted instead of voted drealmer. Had JMich still been alive today, he 100% would have been my first target; I didn't think that it made sense for him to do nothing all day and then get offended when called out on it. More than that, I didn't think that it looked town at all when he self-voted instead of pushing for a no lynch or pushing for a drealmer lynch (why would you rather lynch a townie than someone of an unknown alignment?).

Why is it that your suspicion on me is more than a hunch but your suspicion on trial isn't?
Brasas's case on me for being linked with trial was wrong - I thought he was town early on for reasons that I've explained earlier, reasons that you didn't have any issue with then. What I don't like about this particular push is that you're using Brasas's thoughts (which you didn't really seem to agree with before unless I'm misremembering which is entirely possible) as your own even though they don't really apply any more; it should be pretty obvious that there aren't two scum left (three scum versus 10 people is absolutely ridiculous).


It was accidental. I was trying to get a vote in while I was at work (which is not a job where I'm able to sit down and post much), and forgot about the unvoting rule since it's somewhat of an abnormal rule in a mostly normal game.

I didn't think that drealmer looked that scummy on Day 1; I think that most people would agree with me. The reasons Lift was pushing him early (voting No Lynch) didn't really ring that solidly to me, and I didn't really follow the reasons you were pushing him.

My perspective on the drealmer lynch or no lynch was exactly that; I think that No Lynches are very strongly anti-town, and, while I didn't really have a scumread on drealmer, I certainly didn't have a townread defending him over. I didn't think that my counterwagon of JMich had any steam or validity (and was also losing faith in the read there since everyone said that was his typical playstyle), and so the options presented towards the town was lynch drealmer or lynch no one. I chose to lynch drealmer.

I think that it's a little silly to hold my inability to vote properly against me; do you think that my failure at bolding the next day when voting drealmer after Brasas died was also strategic? If I was fake-voting him, why do you think he immediately claimed jailkeeper (thus dooming his slot) afterwards?

You're still just picking at mistakes that are obviously sloppy over intentional; why would a singular kill last night (read: the normal thing to expect) make today "sloppy"? Why would it mean that your vote needed to be extra cautious? I don't like that you decided to dogpile me instantly and I especially don't like you trying to encourage others to keep their votes on me at the beginning of the day - what's the town motivation in this?

I did not at any point say there were 3 scum, that would make no sense in this setup. I did say I thought the 10th person was probably not town aligned as in a neutral of some sort.

If you are not scum I think you are a neutral of some sort with your own agenda.

Hunter's original push on me was that he thought there were two scum and I was trial's partner; that was the ridiculous line that I was attacking. Why do you think that I am a neutral with an agenda? Why am I playing unbelievably badly if town?
I don't tend to lurk as any alignment on purpose, for what it's worth; I find lurking to victory a cowardly and a lame way to win. Unfortunately, I'm also the type of person who takes on a lot of responsibilities and makes a bunch of plans and then randomly gets overwhelmed; would rather not get into personal things overmuch because I feel it taints the games a bit, but my disappearances when they happen are due to RL things as opposed to in game reasons.

I want to highlight these couple of posts in particular since they tie in with why I think that Hunter is the last scum; Hunter discredited Brasas's analysis the first time he saw it; he said no Brasas, that's silly, that doesn't make sense. The very next post suddenly he's buying into it and voting me (which isn't so bad in isolation, because hey deadline), but now he's still voting me and still pushing me even when it's become patently clear that Brasas's theory was wrong? I think that he discredited Brasas initially when he thought it wasn't going to get traction, then changed his mind midday and decided to push me after; I don't think it makes any sense for any townie to look at an argument, disagree with it, and then suddenly make it his gospel for the rest of the game for no explanation at all.

I'm sure that this is something I'll be getting into later, but I don't think that anyone else could be scum except for Hunter; trial remains by far my strongest townread, then comes Darko, then comes trent; Hunter is several tiers below that. I don't think that his push on me for my townread on Trial is natural, I think that he was trying to piggyback off Brasas's push onto me, and I really really hate how he's been trying to push my lynch today; where every other person in the game is asking everyone to slow down, consider the evidence, talk about things, Hunter's been shrugging and trying to strongarm my lynch before I make it back to the thread since he knows I'm an experienced player and he knows that I'm not going to let myself get mislynched without a hell of a fight.

I think that the timing of his flop is pretty convenient; at the time he started giving credence to Brasas's claim (if I remember correctly, I'm flying by the seat of my pants right now), Drealmer's wagon was slowly becoming the only serious wagon and Hunter not only didn't interact with it in any way whatsoever, he just denied it whenever it popped up; he never tried to look into the reasoning for why it was happening, he never tried to engage it, and then suddenly he finds some newfound interest in the Brasas case he didn't buy initially?

Vote: Hunter

I feel really good that Hunter is the last scum; his behavior towards me today makes sense as scum trying to push through a mislynch that they're banking on and his interactions with drealmer are terrible.

So, setup speculation ahead: if y'all read this as scummy, then so be it, but I think we should deal in likelihoods as town, and at this point the only known unknown is who the 1-shot bulletproof townie is; as long as we feel mostly confident that the 10th role is not a direct risk to us, we should imho specifically hunt the second scum.

What we know about setup is that bler posted this in the signup thread:
"could theoretically play the 9 person matrix 6 with one closed tweak that...I think I can roughly balance if we play with 10?"
and later:
[i]"6 combos for 9 players - 10th is off the matrix and part of the puzzle is figuring out what it is/isn't. For example, if the matrix combo is "2" then it's:

Mafia RB + Goon vs Town Doc, Town Cop + 5 VT. And then a 10th player not on the matrix just to make it interesting, but I will say I'm not going for bastard, and while I can't promise it's 100% balanced, it's not going to be insanely off."[/i]

A third mafia member would be just completely unbalanced. I can see two ways in which the setup would make sense: 10th is regular townie, with a special extra kill for scum to balance it out (that would explain last night; maybe something in response to a mafia-lynch?), or 10th is some kind of neutral/3rd party with killing ability (and here I'm at a distinct disadvantage due to being totally unfamiliar with most PRs). That second option seems to fit more with what bler claimed, although I was heavily leaning toward the first option being the likelier one before I just reread what bler wrote exactly.


Now for my defense... of nacho: At the point when he mis-voted drealmer, drealmer was at L-2, with less than 2 hours to go in the game. I had indicated that I was thinking about voting drealmer in the post immediately before his vote, jmich and hunter had indicated they weren't going to vote drealmer, and brasas was convinced the two scum were me and nacho, so was probably unlikely to switch to drealmer (turned out from his final post that he was considering hammering drealmer after all, but the tea leaves at the point of nacho's vote didn't seem to indicate this). That means that from nacho's PoV, if nacho hadn't switched his vote to drealmer, drealmer would've been extremely unlikely to reach majority.
That makes me think his vote is not what a scum-buddy would do.

Critiques, please! Does that line of thought hold up? Or is bussing someone that strongly a thing that scum actually does? It doesn't seem to have given Nacho any serious town cred (at least not publicly posted until this post of mine here), so I don't think so.


If someone has strong arguments why the above doesn't hold up, I can still get onboard with a Nacho lynch (also because I'm hopeful that we're going to see another day even if wrong, with (presumably) both an unused bulletproof townie still amongst us, and the belief that 2 night kills is unlikely to happen again), but for the moment I'm leaning where I've been leaning all game long: Hunter.

(Hrm, actually, what happens if we lynch town, scum kills town, and tomorrow has 1 town, 1 neutral and 1 scum alive? I'm presuming a regular lynch, and then that determines either town victory or scum victory?)

I really thought your returned vote for drealmer was against town-interests. FWIW, I don't think my vote on you there can in any way be considered to "further dilute the voting pool", since my vote up to then was on Hunter, where I was the only one. (Or maybe I misunderstand your meaning?)

I can understand the irk, but at least your "I told you so." reaction the next day firmly put you on top of my town reads list.

The later D3 Vote Count


Nacho (1): Hunter
Hunter (1): Nacho

Not voting (3): Darko, Trial, Trent

Maj = 3, Nacho/Hunter both closest to being smurfed into the Smurfmatic Smurfmotabulator at L-2.

Deadline Wed at noon pacific, <22 hours ahead.

Scum =/= Mafia
You could be scum but not yet be partners, scum just means your win depends on town losing. Defending other scum especially when town is at MyLo is a viable strategy. By original if you mean d1 then yes, I suspected a straight up mafia association then but in my recent post I did not say so.

Glad to see you playing, regarless of alignment.


The wagon could have gone either way. It did sit at L-2 for over 20 hours, but it wouldn't be too out of the question to see 2 townies jump on in the last minute to avoid a no-lynch. The real mystery for me is why drealmer claimed jailkeeper. Maybe an attempt to expose our jailkeeper before getting hammered?

I'm far from a balance expert, but that is what I'm thinking. In any case, we're at a point where anyone can claim vanilla, so that doesn't help or hurt us in any way that I can see.

Fair enough, I was thinking more in terms of the game in general. I don't think you believed a wagon for me would gain traction in the last 30 minutes or anything.
*regardless

First I disagreed about trial's "slip" that brasas mentioned not the entire analysis he put forth and if you see my posts you can see the reason why I felt you would be a better lynch than trial. (Never said you were innocent, never rejected his entire hypothesis initially as you claim now) Now who's strong arming whom again? At least I am not twisting facts, definitely doesn't put you in a good light.

A good way for scum to gain town cred is by busing their scum buddy, so his move to vote drealmer could go either way (the part I find interesting is he did not actually vote drealmer because of his "mistake")

If the game came down to 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 neutral town would likely lose depending on the neutral role. If the neutral role was a hostile one (like a serial killer) then town could not win in that scenario because if they lynch scum the neutral would win and if they lynch the neutral then scum would win. If the neutral is something like a survivor then yes town would win with a scum lynch (the survivor would win too).

Give proof of this if you can, link a post where I tried to rush others to vote you. In fact I even said that people here will always give lynchee a chance to defend themselves. You're just flailing now, perhaps that's the "experience" you are referring to.

trent that hammer would not have happened, and I know that you've seen [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/mafia_game_thread_smurfia_the_smurfiest_mafia_game_ever_43/post298]this post you even replied to it.

The later later D3 Vote Count

Nacho (1): Hunter
Hunter (1): Nacho

Not voting (3): Darko, Trial, Trent

Maj = 3, Nacho/Hunter both closest to being smurfed into the Smurfmatic Smurfmotabulator at L-2.

Deadline Wed at noon pacific, 16.25 hours ahead.